Positive Reinforcement in an Ongoing War
Melinda Crane: “Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive has begun.” One could question the use of the word “begin.”
Today I woke up, checked my phone for new news, then downloaded the up-to-the minute videos from trusted YouTube sources. The 1,000 sq. km are are still there and the repetitiveness surrounding embarrassment, boldness, excellent planning, and all the rest continues. For those of us paying less attention over the last year–the media coverage was not there–it is a different situation for Ukraine today.
Trying, but failing, to conquer Kyiv wasn’t such a dumb idea after all. In almost all other countries, perhaps including Germany and France also, it would have worked. The whole thing is just a giant test market. For the dictator and sole motivator, the loss, the lives, and even the embarrassment didn’t matter much. The more important goal was the now almost complete land bridge. Even with the loss of Russia’s navy in the area the march to the southeastern tip of Ukraine and into Moldova is almost complete. The Kursk invasion and its related moves and repercussions are unlikely to change that. Ukraine is on its way to becoming landlocked and not the same.
To the Point is still playing in the background. I may as well watch the history instead of the news. The 11.1 gb of history is in an endless loop.
That the “West” or more accurately democracies are better than Russia continues to be the theme. Putin is an ignoble tyrant who is preferably not there. The Kursk invasion is a reminder of the egos, corruption, and perceived incompetence and even those are better than the truth of the unspeakable brutality. The 35-year old father and 4-year old son are not expendable.
Michael Clarke is on the video now, still counteroffensive timing. “How do we stop it from happening again?” If there is a cease fire they’ll just do it again in a couple of years.
Now it is the Daily Mail–apartment building in Ukraine burning; minus twenty in Siberia without power due to a Ukrainian drone. This one (video) is after the failed counteroffensive.
The Kursk invasion is an act of desperation in an ongoing war. And they did it because they could.
I suppose it is the bane of being a talking head on TV. But it dominates what remains of print, or online, journalism as well: What are Ukraine’s goals? The suggestions are common and include the same six or eight reasons. These include embarrassment, land negotiation, hostage exchange, troop repositioning/relief elsewhere, U.S. election fears, a Ukrainian moral boost, and evidence to supporter/donor nations. Overriding it all is the hope the Russian people will have had enough.
So what is the purpose? It is war and anything goes. Suppose these probably 15,000 troops would have stayed to defend the Donbas? The main goal is to protect that which is the same as retaining as much territory as possible and so far it is working.
How and why? They found a soft spot in border protections, defenses just inside Russia, and due to the overall framework of bureaucracy, corruption, and centralized decision making and they executed.
Hopefully they will exit when it is relatively safe to do so and the mission will remain a success.
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[…] is apparent that the U.S. knew about the Kursk incursion. Now it is ATACMS on Russian and North Korean soldiers in Russia. […]